How Uddhav Thackeray in MVA is half the leader

Uddhav Thackeray blamed the non-fulfilment of two key demands — the chief minister’s post and a favourable power-sharing arrangement — when his Shiv Sena parted ways with the BJP in November 2019. Five years on, he is at a loss when the two demands are considered. On top of that, he lost control over the Shiv Sena, the party formed by his father. With the Maharashtra Assembly election just a month away, and a seat-sharing deal done, what is the cost that Uddhav Thackeray is paying to be in the Maha Vikas Aghadi?
Although Uddhav held the Maharashtra chief minister’s post for over two-and-a-half years, he finds himself at a disadvantage ahead of the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election.
His party has been split, and he is no longer the chief of the faction that is officially the Shiv Sena. With this political muscular atrophy, Uddhav Thackeray, probably the strongest CM candidate for the MVA, is no longer the clear choice. It doesn’t seem that he will gain much strength going ahead as his Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting fewer seats than the unified Sena did in 2019.
Reflecting on the cost Uddhav Thackeray is paying for being part of the MVA, Maharashtra BJP President Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “The situation is very bad for Uddhav Thackeray. I feel pity as to why Uddhav Thackeray has done this to himself”.
With the Assembly election in Maharashtra approaching, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, the Congress, and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), has not yet fully finalised its seat-sharing arrangement.
The Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest around 85 seats as of now, with the possibility of the number increasing to 90–95 seats once the negotiations are concluded.
This is a substantial reduction from the 126 seats the undivided Shiv Sena contested in the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections. This is 30-40 seats less than what the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena contested in 2019.
In 2019, the Shiv Sena contested the election as an ally of the BJP.
The undivided Shiv Sena won 56 seats out of the 126 it contested, achieving a strike rate of 44%. It emerged as the second-largest party, after the BJP, which bagged 105 seats.
The status as the second-biggest party gave Uddhav the negotiating power, and fuelled his aspirations.
However, after the election, which both the Hindutva parties fought in alliance, Uddhav Thackeray made a surprising move by parting ways with its oldest ally, the BJP.
He then joined hands with the NCP and the Congress, which won 54 and 44 seats, respectively.
The key reasons for this split were the Shiv Sena’s demands for the chief minister’s post and a more favourable power-sharing arrangement between the two parties. Uddhav Thackeray aligned with the Congress and NCP to form the MVA government, and became the Chief Minister of Maharashtra.
Experts believe the step was also a result of Uddhav trying to secure the political future of his son, Aaditya Thackeray.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections was the first major electoral test for the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena (UBT) after vertical split in the party and Eknath Shinde walkimng away with most elected representatives. It was also the first poll after Udhav split with the BJP.
In the general election, the Shiv Sena (UBT) won 9 of the 21 seats it contested.
This translated to a strike rate of 42.86%, which was similar to its performance in the 2019 assembly elections, when it was with the BJP. Its vote share remained around 16%, the same as in 2019.
The Congress, however, performed much better in Maharashtra in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, showing that it gained from vote transfer from its allies. The results in Maharashtra has given it bargaining power.
The lack of improvement in the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s vote share after joining the MVA shows how the new alliance with the Congress and the NCP didn’t yield dividends for the Uddhav-led party.
In contrast, the Shiv Sena led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde contested 15 Lok Sabha seats and won 7, a strike rate of around 47%, which was better than that of Uddhav’s Sena.
What is also important is that Uddhav Thackeray’s faction benefited from the sympathy factor in the Lok Sabha polls. The split of the Shiv Sena, formed by Uddhav’s father Bal Thackeray, was fresh in the minds of voters.
There are high chances that the sympathy factor might have worn out, and the strike rate would be impacted in the upcoming Assembly polls.
To add to the agony of Uddhav Thackeray, the Congress, buoyed by the 2024 polls results, is now staking a claim to the chief minister’s post that he would have preferred to keep.
Meanwhile, Thackeray now finds himself reliant on the Congress and the NCP. His change in stance on the CM face of the Maha Vikas Aghadi reveals this.
In August, Uddhav Thackeray insisted on deciding the MVA’s CM face upfront, rather than following the usual approach of selecting the candidate based on who wins the most seats. However, two months later, in October, Thackeray said he was willing to support any CM face announced by allies, the Congress or the Sharad Pawar-led SP, to “save” Maharashtra.
Contesting for 90–95 seats in the 2024 Assembly elections looks like a significant compromise Uddhav Thackeray and the Shiv Sena (UBT) have made. It is far from the desirable head-start the party might have hoped for, considering its historical strength and influence in Maharashtra.
Contesting on a fewer number of seats will further reduce Uddhav’s political muscle.
With a strike rate of 44%, contesting 85 and 95 seats would get Shiv Sena (UBT) 37 and 41 seats, respectively. In both cases the count will be much lower than its 2019 tally of 56.
Moreover, the MVA alliance has not yet announced a clear chief ministerial candidate, which has put Thackeray’s aspirations for the top post at risk.
The gamble of walking away from the BJP-led NDA might have won him Uddhav Thackeray the chief minister’s chair for a while, but now he’s left playing second fiddle or third, in an alliance where he holds fewer cards. This is how Uddhav in MVA has been reduced to half the leader he was in the NDA.